Regular readers of Football Circus will be familiar with the Magic 8 Ball Transfer Oracle segment. We have been running this segment for fifteen weeks.
The purpose of this segment was to highlight the tedium and sensationalism that go with football transfer rumours. Whilst there is obviously a degree of truth in many of the rumours, we felt it safe to say many are pure fabrication and are solely created with the intention of selling newspapers / generating website hits.
The website footballtransferleague.co.uk, shows statistics of UK-based newspapers' transfer rumours reported and how many of the rumoured transfers actually materialise. At the beginning of the Magic 8 Ball Transfer Oracle experiment, the highest ranking newspaper had a rumour accuracy rating of 34.2%, whilst the lowest ranking newspaper a mere 11.3%.
So Football Circus undertook the task of taking one rumour per week and using a Magic 8 Ball to predict the outcome. Today we will assess how many of the predictions were correct and just how they compare, percentage wise, to the newspapers.
We will below look at each of the fifteen rumours and whether the 8 Ball proved correct or incorrect.
CESC FABREGAS TO MANCHESTER UNITED
(As reported here http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/manchester-united-make-shock-move-for-former-arsenal-captain-cesc-fabregas-8614167.html)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"MY SOURCES SAY NO" - CORRECT
NEYMAR TO BARCELONA
(As reported here http://www.ibtimes.com/neymar-transfer-news-barcelona-verge-deal-real-madrid-chelsea-manchester-city-target-1275125)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
“OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD” - INCORRECT
HULK TO MONACO
(As reported here http://www.caughtoffside.com/2013/05/29/monaco-weighing-up-bid-for-brazilian-striker-hulk/)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"LOOKING GOOD" - INCORRECT
WAYNE ROONEY TO ARSENAL
(As reported here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2336222/Wayne-Rooney-Arsenal-target-fed-midfield-role.html and here http://www.caughtoffside.com/2013/06/06/exclusive-arsenal-close-in-on-sensational-deal-to-sign-wayne-rooney-as-man-united-striker-indicates-interest-in-gunners-move/)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"I HAVE MY DOUBTS" - CORRECT
GARETH BALE TO REAL MADRID
(As reported here http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/406731/Real-Madrid-unfazed-by-Tottenham-demanding-85m-for-Gareth-Bale)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"LOOKING GOOD" - CORRECT
DANIELE DE ROSSI TO CHELSEA
(As reported here http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2892/transfer-zone/2013/06/03/4022661/chelsea-open-talks-with-roma-to-sign-de-rossi)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"I HAVE MY DOUBTS" - CORRECT
MICAH RICHARDS TO BAYERN MUNICH
(As reported here http://www.dailystar.co.uk/football/view/322885/EXCLUSIVE-Bayern-Munich-want-Manchester-City-s-Micah-Richards/)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"ABSOLUTELY NOT" - CORRECT
EDINSON CAVANI TO PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN
(As reported here http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/football/4995650/Edinson-Cavani-transfer-Laurent-Blanc-reveals-PSG-interest.html and here http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/jul/02/paris-saint-germain-edinson-cavani)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"YOU CAN COUNT ON IT" - CORRECT
NANI TO ROMA
(As reported here http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/roma-poised-for-nani-swoop-4882063 and here http://metro.co.uk/2013/07/06/luis-nani-could-quit-manchester-united-and-join-roma-reveals-agent-3871367/)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"YES" - INCORRECT
LUIS SUAREZ TO ARSENAL
(As reported here http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/jul/23/arsenal-luis-suarez-liverpool-transfer and here http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/english-soccer/arsenal-pull-out-all-the-stops-to-sign-luis-suarez-1.1472850)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"YES" - INCORRECT
KEISUKE HONDA TO AC MILAN
(As reported here http://www.fanatix.com/news/ac-milan-target-keisuke-honda-reportedly-prepared-to-take-pay-cut/132784/ and here http://www.insidefutbol.com/2013/07/31/ac-milan-receive-positive-news-on-keisuke-honda-chase/93734/)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"FORGET ABOUT IT" - CORRECT
DAVID LUIZ TO BARCELONA
(As reported here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2385954/David-Luiz-latest-Barcelona-make-bid-Chelsea-star.html)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"YES" - INCORRECT
SAMUEL ETO'O TO CHELSEA
(As reported here http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/chelsea-transfers-samuel-etoo-wants-2158520 and here http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/story/229701.html)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"LOOKING GOOD" - CORRECT
GEOFFREY KONDOGBIA TO MONACO
(As reported here http://www.crunchsports.com/category/Soccer/Chelsea-FC-Man-Utd-target-Geoffrey-Kondogbia-wont-be-allowed-to-leave-on-the-cheap-201308200015/ and here http://www.football-espana.net/35395/monaco-close-kondogbia)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"YES" - CORRECT
CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN TO TOTTENHAM
(As reported here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2403755/Tottenham-negotiation-Ajax-Christian-Eriksen.html and here http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/story/233411.html)
Magic 8 Ball Says...
"LOOKING GOOD TO ME" - CORRECT
So, what does all this tell us? Well of the fifteen rumours we chose to focus on, a Magic 8 Ball correctly predicted ten of the outcomes - two thirds in total. Yes, we merely shook a Magic 8 Ball and by pure luck / chance, two thirds of the outcomes it predicted we right. Now you can read two things from that. Firstly, Magic 8 Balls may in fact be magic. Secondly, and certainly the more logical conclusion to draw, is that transfer rumours that newspapers report on, often have little or no substance to them.
BUT WAIT!
Maybe we have written off the newspapers too soon as there is a second way of analysing the above rumours.
Of the fifteen rumours chosen, all were treated by the newspapers, certainly at some point, as having a positive outcome, i.e. The newspaper reports suggested that a transfer would or may happen.
So the transfers that DID go through were:
- NEYMAR TO BARCELONA
- SAMUEL ETO'O TO CHELSEA
- GARETH BALE TO REAL MADRID
- GEOFFREY KONDOGBIA TO MONACO
- EDINSON CAVANI TO PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN
- CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN TO TOTTENHAM
So that's six of the fifteen transfers that were rumoured that actually took place. 40%. In all honesty, here at Football Circus we're quite surprised at that figure. We certainly did not foresee such accuracy in the newspaper rumours. Yes, fewer than half the rumours proved to be correct. But the statistic mentioned earlier that, according to footballtransferleague.co.uk (before this segment began), the highest ranking newspaper had a rumour accuracy rating of 34.2%, puts things into perspective.
Perhaps the newspapers are becoming more accurate. Perhaps, as social networking websites such as Twitter grow in popularity, newspapers and journalists are under more pressure to be seen as trusted sources of information.
What we would say is that transfer rumours should most definitely be taken with a pinch of salt - As the accuracy of the Magic 8 Ball predictions would suggest. However, an accuracy rating of 40% from the newspapers ain't bad. We may have been a little hasty in our suggestion that belief in transfer rumours is a mug's game. So go on, continue reading the back pages and hold out some hope that your club will make a mega-signing. But don't put any of your own money on it!
We hope you have enjoyed this 25th edition of Football Circus and the Magic 8 Ball Transfer Oracle segment. Join us again next week when normal service resumes!
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